Cancer costs projected to reach at least $158 billion in 2020

New NIH study projects survivorship and costs of cancer care based on changes in the US population and cancer trends

Based on growth and aging of the U.S. population, medical expenditures for cancer in the year 2020 are projected to reach at least $158 billion (in 2010 dollars) – an increase of 27 percent over 2010, according to a National Institutes of Health analysis. If newly developed tools for cancer diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up continue to be more expensive, medical expenditures for cancer could reach as high as $207 billion, said the researchers from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), part of the NIH. The analysis appears online, Jan. 12, 2011, in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

Graph shows cost projections for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, lymphoma, and prostate cancer. There are five lines for each cancer. The first line represents 2010 costs, the second represents 2020 costs if incidence, survival, and costs remain constant, and the third line represents costs for 2020 if costs remains constant but incidence and survival mirror recent trends. The fourth and fifth lines represent costs if incidence and survival follow trends and costs increase by 2 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. The values on the graph are as follows (expressed as costs in US 2010 billion dollars): Breast 16.49982, 20.49625, 19.08418, 21.36733, 25.64077. Colorectal 14.14048, 17.40829, 14.69941, 16.68146, 20.39135. Lung, 12.1207, 14.73277, 12.53303, 14.73016, 18.8426. Lymphoma, 12.14254, 15.26053, 15.43801, 17.26625, 20.68822. Prostate, 11.84809, 16.34137, 15.40885, 16.66773, 19.02401

The projections were based on the most recent data available on cancer incidence, survival, and costs of care. In 2010, medical costs associated with cancer were projected to reach $124.6 billion, with the highest costs associated with breast cancer ($16.5 billion), followed by colorectal cancer ($14 billion), lymphoma ($12 billion), lung cancer ($12 billion) and prostate cancer ($12 billion).

Read more in my press release on cancer.gov

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